Supply Chains 2026: From Cost Optimization to Risk-Ready Networks, What Successful Companies Will Be Prioritizing
Over the past five years, supply chains have absorbed shocks one after another. Pandemics, geopolitical conflicts, tariffs, shortages, natural disasters, and cyberattacks have all made it clear that disruption is no longer the exception, but the norm.
In Forbes’ “Supply Chains, 2026: Less Globalization, More AI,” a survey from Prologis and The Harris Poll found that 58% of executives expect supply chains to become more localized by 2030, while only 31% still anticipate continued globalization. Instead of opting for the absolute lowest landed cost, leaders are prioritizing resilience, control, and proximity to demand. Their top risk concerns going into 2026 include economic volatility (55%), rising tariffs and trade barriers (48%), geopolitical instabilities (38%), and cybersecurity threats (38%).
At the same time, seven in ten executives say they are already applying AI somewhere in their supply chain. Yet research from the MIT Media Lab in 2025 found that 95% of companies saw little to no measurable financial return from their AI initiatives, revealing the widening gap between adoption and impact.
Together, these realities are reshaping the standard of what an effective supply chain looks like. Going into 2026, three themes stand out for mid-sized organizations:
Generative AI shifting from experimentation to a practical tool for planning and risk.
Resilience and flexibility overtaking pure efficiency as the primary measurement of performance.
Hidden operational and transportation costs become more expensive and more visible as networks tighten.
This article looks at each theme through the lens of mid-market supply chains and outlines where leaders can focus in 2026 to build networks that are not only resilient, but prepared to grow.
1. Generative AI for Planning and Risk
From Hype to Planning Copilot
Many organizations have an abundance of data but lack a clear way to turn it into actionable insight. Interpreting conflicting signals under pressure while keeping up with demand shifts, supplier delays, weather events, and changing tariffs has become increasingly difficult.
However, generative AI is fundamentally reshaping how teams interact with data. Instead of combing through dashboards and reports, planners can rely on AI to do the heavy lifting: automating routine analysis, detecting patterns that are hard to spot manually, and translating complex inputs into plain-language insight. Teams can ask practical, conversational questions like “Where are we most exposed if lead times from Supplier X are delayed by two weeks?” and receive immediate, clear, decision-ready answers tailored to their situation.
By drawing from ERPs, TMS and WMS platforms and external feeds alongside macroeconomic indicators, weather reports, port congestion, and geopolitical news, AI is able to synthesize information at a scale and speed no human team can replicate.
That being said, these advantages aren’t automatic. As the MIT Media Lab study unveiled, most organizations do not have an AI capability problem; they have an implementation problem. Leaders underestimate how much their teams are already using AI on their own, and often underinvest in training, workflow redesign, and guardrails.
In 2026, the companies that pull ahead will be the ones that treat AI as a planning copilot, not a standalone tool. This means embedding AI into existing processes, clarifying when and how it should be used, and training employees and teams to interpret and challenge its recommendations.
On-Demand Risk Assessment and “What-If” Scenario Planning
As Forbes highlights, cost optimization is no longer the top priority; today, risk mitigation is more important than ever. With volatility, tariffs, geopolitical shifts, and cybersecurity concerns shaping every supply chain decision, AI’s greatest impact in 2026 will come from strengthening risk visibility and response.
The capabilities once considered future-facing that are now becoming foundational to how supply chains operate include:
Automated risk scanning: Models can continuously scan for changes in lead times, quality metrics, port dwell times, supplier financial health, or regional risk indicators. Instead of discovering issues when service levels drop, planners receive early warnings while there is still time to act.
Dynamic risk scoring: Suppliers, lanes and SKUs can be scored on weighted factors such as country risk, single-source exposure, historical volatility, and ESG performance. Scores update as conditions change, which gives teams a clear picture of where to diversify or create buffers.
“What-if” simulations: AI lets teams explore realistic disruption scenarios, whether that be a port delay, a demand shift, new tariffs, or a carrier issue, to see how each one affects cost and service. Instead of manually creating models, planners can compare options instantly and see the impact on cost, service levels, and capacity.
AI-powered digital twins and routing: Some companies are beginning to use virtual network models (digital twins) to test disruptions before they happen, with routing tools serving to adjust shipments based on real-time conditions. These tools support agility without requiring large-scale changes to the system.
These tools help teams move from reacting to issues as they happen towards deliberate and forward-looking scenario preparation. The technology is powerful, but what ultimately drives impact is how intentionally leaders combine AI with experienced judgement, structure, and clear decision pathways.
2. Adaptability and Flexibility: Cost Optimization as a Byproduct, Not the Goal
From Lean to Flexible
For decades, efficiency in supply chain was synonymous with being lean. Single-source suppliers, minimal safety stock, and tightly optimized networks were considered best practices, until a series of global disruptions exposed the fragility of systems designed for predictability.
Examples from the last twenty years reinforce this point:
Toyota’s ultra-lean system, once hailed as the global standard, proved to be a major operational limitation during the 2011 earthquake and tsunami when reliance on a single-source microcontroller supplier brought production to a halt.
A decade later, this lesson reemerged at a global scale. The pandemic-driven semiconductor shortage created months-long production delays worldwide, highlighting the structural risks of concentrated suppliers and lean inventories.
The same practices that once made companies world-class can quickly become constraints when disruption hits. In 2026, leading organizations aren’t abandoning efficiency, but redefining it entirely. Efficiency is no longer about minimizing every cost; it's about building systems that can absorb shocks without derailing performance when conditions change.
Diversified and Modular Networks
The Prologis 2026 outlook illustrates this shift with several structural trends:
Regionalized networks: More than three-quarters of companies surveyed are already building or operating regional networks, especially near large consumption centers. This shift towards more distributed networks reduces exposure to single-country risk and long, disruption-prone transportation routes.
Gateway market recovery: U.S. coastal markets, such as New Jersey and the Inland Empire, are expected to reach a three-year high in demand for Class A logistics space as companies position inventory closer to end customers. Rent premiums that spiked during the pandemic have been cooling down, improving the price-to-value for coastal locations.
Rising warehouse utilization: Warehouse utilization climbed through 2025, but has yet to return to the approximate 85% mark identified by Prologis. This indicates that many companies will soon require additional or redesigned space to keep up with demand.
Acceleration in e-commerce leasing: E-commerce demand continues to rise, and by 2026, online retailers are expected to account for nearly a quarter of all new industrial leases. As global online sales approach 20% of total retail, companies will need faster and more flexible fulfillment space near population centers
These forces point to new expectations for network design. Instead of one ideal layout, companies will need adaptable systems that can shift volume as conditions change. For many companies, this means building a mix of coastal facilities, inland hubs, and nearshore locations that give teams more options when demand spikes or disruptions occur.
New Constraints: Power, Defense, and Transportation
Being close to customers is important, but location alone doesn’t make a network resilient. Facilities need the right capabilities to keep operations running as demand evolves.
Prologis highlights two dynamics that will matter for 2026:
Power-ready facilities as a top selection factor: Automation, AI, HVAC, and advanced manufacturing are all dramatically increasing energy needs. Fully automated logistics facilities can require three to five times more power than today’s typical warehouse. In Europe and Mexico, grid delays and connection caps are already constraining new developments, and in parts of the U.S., only 2% substations have available firm capacity. Power availability is becoming an essential selection criterion.
Rise in defense-related demand: Rising defense budgets in the U.S. and Europe are creating new demand for specialized industrial space. The users require secure, high-power buildings which tightens supply in certain regions.
With trucking capacity tightening, freight rates are expected to rise through 2026. This makes network design even more important: companies with facilities closer to their customers can reduce empty miles and protect themselves from variations in transportation costs. Strategic placement of logistics space becomes a significant lever for maintaining service levels and managing cost pressures.
3. Hidden Costs That Will Matter Even More in 2026
As networks tighten, transportation markets fluctuate, and operational complexity increases, certain overlooked costs will become significantly more visible in 2026. The costs themselves aren’t new, but the conditions shaping next year will magnify them, particularly for mid-sized companies working with limited resources and smaller teams.
In our recent Mitchell Taylor report, The Hidden Costs in Your Supply Chain: 7 Operational and Transportation Expenses Most Companies Overlook, we identified seven areas where money quietly leaks out of operations. Going into 2026, two of these stand out as especially important for mid-market organizations:
3PL Costs in an Inflationary Operating Environment
Many organizations rely on third-party logistics providers for transportation, warehousing, and fulfillment. Outsourcing can create flexibility, but it also introduces cost blind spots: storage fees, handling charges, minimums, peak surcharges, and transportation markups that are often buried within invoices.
According to a 2025 Inbound Logistics survey, 72% of 3PLs report rising operating costs, which are then reflected in higher customer pricing. When companies treat 3PL spend as a fixed cost rather than a managed one, they face year-to-year increases with little clarity into what’s driving them.
Given the ongoing pressure in U.S. trucking markets, these dynamics take on greater importance. Prologis found that U.S. carrier authorities are down from their 2022 peak, tender rejections are trending up, and spot rates have already increased entering 2026. This means that 3PLs will be under more pressure to protect their own margins, and any inefficiencies like unused capacity, manual processes, and poor routing will likely surface in customer pricing.
For 2026, mid-sized shippers will need clearer visibility into how 3PL costs are structured and where they have leverage. This includes:
aligning service levels and rate structures with actual needs rather than inherited templates,
using data to compare contracted rates against market benchmarks,
and reviewing network design so facilities and 3PL footprints reinforce each other rather than creating friction.
Underutilized Freight and the Cost of Empty Space
The other hidden cost that will become more expensive in 2026 is underutilized freight. A recent Flock Freight and Drive Research study found that nearly half of all truckloads ship partially empty, with average capacity utilization around 55%. Mid-sized companies in the $100M-999M revenue range reported partially empty truckloads 58-61% of the time, paying for space that delivers zero value.
When rates climb, the empty miles become even more costly. Prologis’ trucking pricing and capacity data shows spot rates trending upward even as the number of active carriers falls. With this in mind, the business case for improving load consolidation, pooling, and routing becomes significantly stronger.
For mid-sized shippers, 2026 will reward organizations that:
use data to identify lanes with consistent underutilization,
explore shared or pooled transportation models,
and coordinate network design decisions such as facility locations, order profiles, and cutoff times with freight strategies rather than managing them in isolation.
While inventory misalignment, fragmented processes, and missed cost-reductions opportunities remain significant hidden costs, 3PL cost creep and underutilized freight stand directly at the center of 2026’s biggest pressures: rising transportation costs, tightening capacity, and continued margin compression.
How Mitchell Taylor Helps Clients Prepare for 2026
2026 will reward organizations that take a deliberate, forward-looking approach to their supply chain. AI will become a practical planning tool rather than an experiment, networks will need to be more flexible and regionalized, and hidden costs like 3PL contracts and underutilized freight will become more visible as transportation markets tighten.
The hardest part is deciding where to focus first. Mitchell Taylor brings structure to decision-making in a complex landscape. We work with organizations to clarify where they are exposed, where opportunities exist, and how to build systems that can adapt without unnecessary cost or disruption.
Alongside mid-sized organizations, we:
Strengthen planning and risk visibility: While clients adopt generative AI to support planning and analytics, we help design the decision pathways, workflows, and governance needed to make those tools useful in day-to-day operations.
Improve operational and transportation performance: Through assessments, cost audits, and network analysis, we identify hidden inefficiencies and provide clear, actionable, recommendations for reducing waste and improving service.
Support strategic execution and leadership: Through strategic advising, assessments, or hands-on value-creation projects, we help organizations execute changes with clarity and confidence.
Supply chains that are more resilient and more transparent are better prepared for the realities of 2026. When planning is supported by AI, networks are built for flexibility instead of fracture, and hidden costs are brought into the open, cost optimization is no longer a moving target and becomes the natural outcome of a stronger, more adaptable supply chain.
At Mitchell Taylor, we believe the right partner helps you move forward with a plan grounded in achievement, sustainability, and real operational improvement.
